The large-scale invasion of the russian federation in Ukraine and the futurology of war: lessons and tasks for the future
Keywords:war, strategy, hybrid war, fourth generation war, new generation war, doctrine, concept, technology, irregular, futurology
The article attempts to raise the question of the impact of the large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine on the modern war, аs a phenomenon and its understanding within the framework of modern science and philosophy. At the same time, dramatic social experience is considered in the context of social training of societies involved in war. The question of the significance of a large-scale war for the formation of Ukrainian society and its transformation is raised. The basic modern concepts of «new generation war» are analyzed. In particular, attention is paid to such concepts as «the war of the fourth generation», «rebellion», «gerasimov`s doctrine», «hybrid war». The article formulates the following seven questions, which indicate a certain research perspective. First, what will be the ratio of state and non-state actors in a large-scale conflict of the new generation in a situation where it is not a confrontation between the state and irregular forces, but a large-scale war between two major powers, in which non-state factors range from national and dance-national forces – to self-organized segments of society? Secondly, what will be the significance of the psychological factor in a large-scale war, when it will be able to acquire the maximum value? Attention to it is inherent in all concepts of war of the new generation, but in any case, it will be balanced by others – such as technological, organizational and others. Third, how will the war affect the social structure and what social structure will the forces involved in it have? Fourth, how far will changes in military affairs due to state-of-the-art technology move? What are the moral and legal problems? Fifth, how far will the blurring of the line between the military and non-military spheres go? Sixth, how will the new principles of governance affect the organizational aspect of war and how will the new principles of military governance affect governance and civilian areas, particularly in economics and politics? Seventh, how will the war of the new generation shape the new civilization of the future, and how will the civilization of the future affect the formation of the war of the new generation?
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